Pillar Guide · Updated July 2026
Your State Pension Forecast: A Complete UK Guide for 2026/27
Your State Pension forecast tells you how much State Pension you are currently on track to receive, and at what age. This guide explains how to get your forecast, how to read the figures on it, common reasons the forecast shows less than the full new State Pension, and what to do if you want to improve it.
What a State Pension Forecast Shows
A State Pension forecast is an estimate, based on your National Insurance record to date, of how much State Pension you are on track to receive if you continue contributing at your current rate until you reach State Pension age, along with the date you reach that age. It is not a guarantee of the final amount, since your NI record can still change between now and retirement.
How to Check Your Forecast
The quickest way to check is online through the 'Check your State Pension forecast' service, accessible via GOV.UK or the HMRC app, using a Government Gateway login, which shows an up-to-date forecast based on your NI record instantly. People who cannot access it online can request a paper forecast (form BR19) by post instead.
Reading the Figures
The forecast shows the amount you are currently on track to get if you contribute NI up to State Pension age, the most you could get if you continue contributing (which may be the same figure), your State Pension age, and how many qualifying years you already have on your record compared with the 35 years generally needed for the full new State Pension amount.
Why Your Forecast May Be Less Than the Full Rate
A forecast below the full new State Pension weekly rate usually means either you have fewer than 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions or credits, or you were 'contracted out' of the Additional State Pension for some years in the past (common for many people in workplace pension schemes before April 2016), which reduces the starting amount used when the new State Pension system began.
Being Contracted Out in the Past
Being contracted out meant you and your employer paid a reduced rate of National Insurance in exchange for building up a pension through a workplace scheme instead of the Additional State Pension, and a 'Contracted Out Pension Equivalent' deduction reflecting this is applied when calculating your starting amount for the new State Pension, which is why some people with a long NI record still see a forecast below the full weekly rate.
How Accurate Is the Forecast
The forecast is generally reliable for the years already on your record, but the 'amount you're on track for' figure assumes you will continue contributing (or receiving qualifying credits) every year until you reach State Pension age, so it can change if your working pattern, benefit entitlement, or contribution history changes before then.
How to Improve Your Forecast
If your forecast is below the full rate because of gaps in your record, you may be able to improve it by continuing to work and pay Class 1 or Class 2/4 National Insurance, claiming NI credits you are entitled to (for example while receiving Child Benefit or certain other benefits), or paying voluntary Class 3 (or Class 2 for the self-employed) contributions to fill specific gap years, subject to time limits on how far back you can pay.
Forecast vs What You Actually Receive
The amount you actually receive when you reach State Pension age is based on your full, final National Insurance record at that point, so a forecast obtained years in advance is a snapshot rather than a fixed promise; it is worth checking your forecast again periodically, especially after any significant change such as a career break, becoming self-employed, or moving abroad.