Triple Lock State Pension 2027 Forecast: What the Next Rise Could Be
The State Pension rose 4.8% to £241.30/wk in 2026/27. The 2027/28 rise will be decided by CPI in September 2026 — currently forecast at 3%+. What pensioners and those approaching SPA need to know now.
Quick answer
The State Pension rose to £241.30 per week in April 2026, the largest cash increase since the triple lock was introduced, driven by 4.8% average earnings growth. The 2027/28 rise will be determined in October 2026 when September's CPI figure is published. Current forecasts suggest a 3% rise — taking the pension to around £248.50/week.
For those approaching State Pension age, the growing pension level is good news. But it is also nudging more pensioners toward the income tax threshold.
State Pension Forecast Calculator
Forecast your UK State Pension based on qualifying NI years and model the impact of filling gap years with voluntary Class 3.
Open State Pension Forecast calculatorHow the Triple Lock works
The Triple Lock is the policy guarantee that the State Pension increases each April by the highest of:
- Average earnings growth — measured by the ONS Average Weekly Earnings index, using the three-month average to July for the September figure.
- CPI inflation — the Consumer Prices Index for September, published in October.
- 2.5% — a floor to ensure the pension always rises in real terms.
The reference month is September of the preceding year. The government announces the following April's rate in October or November.
History of Triple Lock rises
| Tax year | Measure used | Increase | New full pension |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | CPI 3.1% | +3.1% | £185.15/wk |
| 2023/24 | Earnings 10.1% | +10.1% | £203.85/wk |
| 2024/25 | Earnings 8.5% | +8.5% | £221.20/wk |
| 2025/26 | Earnings 4.8% | +4.8% | £230.25/wk |
| 2026/27 | Earnings 4.8% | +4.8% | £241.30/wk |
Over five years, the full State Pension has risen from £185.15/wk to £241.30/wk — a 30% increase in cash terms.
2026/27: How we got to £241.30
The 2026/27 rise used September 2025 average earnings growth data from the ONS. Average regular pay (excluding bonuses) grew at 4.8% year-on-year in September 2025. This was higher than CPI (which ran at approximately 3.1% in September 2025) and higher than 2.5%, so earnings won the Triple Lock race.
The annual pension at full rate: £241.30 × 52 = £12,547.60 (commonly rounded to £12,548).
2027/28 forecast
The key data release is September 2026 CPI, published in mid-October 2026.
Current macroeconomic forecasts (as of June 2026):
- CPI for September 2026: most City economists and the OBR forecast CPI in the 2.5–3.5% range through late 2026, with the Bank of England's own central projection around 2.7–3.0% for autumn 2026.
- Average earnings growth: wage growth has been moderating from its post-pandemic peak. Forecasts suggest earnings growth of 3–4% for September 2026.
- 2.5% floor: this is the backstop.
The most likely outcome is a Triple Lock rise of approximately 3–4% for 2027/28.
| Scenario | 2027/28 pension/wk | 2027/28 pension/yr |
|---|---|---|
| 3% rise (CPI wins) | £248.54 | £12,924 |
| 3.5% rise | £249.75 | £12,987 |
| 4% rise (earnings wins) | £250.95 | £13,049 |
| 2.5% floor | £247.33 | £12,861 |
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Open Pension calculatorThe Triple Lock political commitment
Both the Conservative and Labour parties have committed to maintaining the Triple Lock for the duration of the current Parliament (through 2029). This is significant because the Triple Lock costs approximately £1 billion per 1% increase — at the current pension level and number of recipients, a 4% rise costs around £4 billion/year more than a freeze.
Critics argue the Triple Lock is fiscally unsustainable as the pensioner population grows. Proponents argue it prevents pensioner poverty and that those who paid NI contributions throughout their working lives are entitled to the benefit.
The policy has survived multiple reviews. Any changes before 2029 would be a major political event. The Triple Lock appears secure for the near term.
The State Pension and income tax: an emerging issue
The frozen Personal Allowance creates a growing intersection between the State Pension and income tax.
2026/27 comparison:
- Full State Pension: £12,548/yr
- Personal Allowance: £12,570/yr
The pension sits £22 below the PA. Any other income above this slim gap is taxable.
What triggers income tax for pensioners:
- Any occupational pension income.
- SIPP or personal pension drawdown.
- Part-time employment earnings.
- Investment income above the Personal Savings Allowance (£500 for higher-rate, £1,000 for basic-rate taxpayers).
- Dividend income above the £500 allowance.
- Rental income.
A pensioner with State Pension at £12,548 and a small private pension of £5,000/yr has total income of £17,548 — taxable income of £4,978 at 20% = £996 income tax to pay.
The PA has been frozen since 2021 and is frozen until at least 2028. The Triple Lock meanwhile raises the State Pension annually. By 2028/29, if the Triple Lock produces 3% rises and the PA remains at £12,570, the full State Pension will likely exceed the Personal Allowance — meaning every pensioner with only State Pension income will owe income tax.
This is "fiscal drag" operating on pensioners — a stealth tax rise via frozen thresholds.
National Insurance Calculator
Calculate your National Insurance contributions for 2025/26.
Open National Insurance calculatorNI qualifying years: the foundation
The full State Pension requires 35 qualifying NI years. A minimum of 10 years is required for any pension at all.
Each qualifying year is built through:
- Employment with earnings above the Lower Earnings Limit (£6,396/yr in 2026/27).
- Self-employment and paying Class 2 NI.
- NI credits (for carers, parents, those receiving certain benefits).
- Voluntary contributions (Class 2 or Class 3).
Checking your record
gov.uk/check-state-pension (Personal Tax Account) shows your current forecast and years count. The 2020/21 gap year — if unfilled — expires on 5 April 2027.
Cost of filling gaps
Class 3 in 2026/27: £18.40/week = £956.80 for a full year.
Each year bought adds approximately £6.89/week (£358/yr) of State Pension for life. Break-even: under 3 years.
SPA rising to 67
State Pension age began rising from 66 toward 67 in May 2026, with the transition completing in March 2028. If you were born between 6 May 1960 and 5 March 1961, your SPA is between 66 and 67 — check your exact date at gov.uk/state-pension-age.
The April 2027 pensions IHT change
Currently, unused pension pots pass outside the estate for inheritance tax. From April 2027, the government intends to bring defined contribution pension funds into the IHT calculation.
For those with significant pension pots and estates over the nil-rate band (£325,000 + £175,000 main residence NRB = £500,000 per person), the implications are significant:
- Before April 2027: pension pot passes to beneficiaries free of IHT.
- After April 2027: pension pot included in the estate; potentially 40% IHT on the excess above NRBs, on top of income tax when beneficiaries draw down.
Action now:
- Maximise pension contributions using carry-forward if available (up to £240,000 in a single year) — contributions receive income tax relief and will still benefit from decades of tax-free growth.
- Review your drawdown strategy with a financial adviser — it may be optimal to draw down pension income before April 2027 and move surplus to ISA or other assets.
- Review pension nominations (expression of wishes) — these remain important for directing who receives the pension outside probate.
What pensioners should do now
| Action | Reason |
|---|---|
| Check State Pension forecast at gov.uk | Confirm qualifying years and forecast |
| Fill any NI gaps (esp. 2020/21 by April 2027) | Secure extra £6.89/wk for life |
| Check if State Pension triggers tax | Any income above PA is taxable |
| Consider PAYE coding for pension income | HMRC may not tax automatically; check your tax code |
| Review pension IHT position before April 2027 | Major change to estate planning |
Sources
- DWP: New State Pension rates
- ONS: Average weekly earnings, UK
- OBR: Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026
- HM Treasury: Inheritance tax on pensions from April 2027
- gov.uk: State Pension age checker
Frequently asked questions
What is the Triple Lock?
The Triple Lock is the policy that the State Pension rises each April by the highest of three measures: average earnings growth, CPI inflation, or 2.5%. The reference month for earnings and CPI is typically September of the prior year.
How much is the State Pension in 2026/27?
The full new State Pension is £241.30 per week in 2026/27, equivalent to £12,548 per year. This was a 4.8% increase from 2025/26 (£230.25/wk), driven by average earnings growth of 4.8% in September 2025.
What might the State Pension be in 2027/28?
The 2027/28 increase will be determined by the highest of: CPI inflation (September 2026 reading, announced October 2026), average earnings growth (September 2026 ONS data), or 2.5%. Current forecasts suggest CPI at around 3% in autumn 2026, making a 3%+ rise most likely. At 3%, the pension would rise to approximately £248.50/wk (£12,922/yr).
Has the government committed to keeping the Triple Lock?
Yes. Both the Conservative and Labour parties have committed to maintaining the Triple Lock through the current Parliament (to 2029). It is a significant political commitment given the cost — roughly £1 billion per 1% increase in the State Pension.
Does the State Pension now exceed the Personal Allowance?
Yes, and this is increasingly significant. The full State Pension of £12,548/yr is very close to the frozen Personal Allowance of £12,570. Pensioners with only State Pension income pay virtually no income tax. But any additional income — SIPP drawdown, occupational pension, part-time work — pushes them into the taxable band.
How many NI years do I need for the full State Pension?
35 qualifying National Insurance years for the full new State Pension. A minimum of 10 years for any pension at all. You can check your forecast and qualifying year count at gov.uk/check-state-pension.
What does the April 2027 pension IHT change mean?
From April 2027, unused pension funds are expected to be included in the deceased's estate for inheritance tax purposes. This means pension pots could face 40% IHT plus income tax when beneficiaries draw them down. Before April 2027, maximising pension contributions remains highly tax-efficient for wealth transfer.
What is the State Pension age in 2026?
State Pension age is 66 for both men and women. It is scheduled to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028, and further reviews are expected regarding a rise to 68. Check your personal SPA at gov.uk/state-pension-age.
When is the September CPI figure announced?
The ONS typically publishes the September CPI figure in mid-October. This is the figure used to determine the following April's State Pension rise under the Triple Lock. The DWP announces the confirmed State Pension rate in mid-to-late October or November.
Can I defer my State Pension to get a higher amount?
Yes. Deferring your State Pension beyond your SPA increases it by approximately 1% for every 9 weeks you defer (around 5.8%/year). Deferral is advantageous if you expect a long retirement and do not need the income immediately. You must actively defer — you cannot backdate a claim after deferring.
Try the calculators
State Pension Forecast Calculator
Forecast your UK State Pension based on qualifying NI years and model the impact of filling gap years with voluntary Class 3.
Pension Calculator
Estimate your pension pot at retirement and projected annual income.
National Insurance Calculator
Calculate your National Insurance contributions for 2025/26.
Related reading
State Pension Top-Up: Should You Pay Voluntary NI in 2026?
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State Pension Forecast 2026/27: How to Check Your Entitlement and Fill Gaps
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