Glossary · UK
What is State Pension Forecast?
A free online or postal statement from HMRC and DWP showing an individual's current State Pension entitlement, projected amount at State Pension age, and any gaps in their National Insurance record.
Full Definition
A State Pension forecast is a personalised statement, available free of charge through the government's "Check your State Pension forecast" online service (or by post for those who cannot access it online), showing how much new State Pension an individual has earned so far based on their National Insurance record, an estimate of what they are on track to receive at their State Pension age if they continue contributing at the current rate, and the earliest date they can start claiming it. Crucially, the forecast also flags any gaps in the National Insurance record -- tax years that are not full "qualifying years" -- and, since 2016, has typically shown whether paying voluntary Class 3 contributions to fill a specific gap would actually increase the eventual pension, since not every gap year improves the final amount, particularly for people who were contracted out of the Additional State Pension for part of their working life. Because the new State Pension calculation involves a "starting amount" comparison between the old and new system rules as at April 2016, plus qualifying years accrued since then, the forecast is often the clearest and fastest way for an individual to understand their own position without needing to manually work through the underlying transitional rules. The forecast is not a guarantee -- future legislative changes, further NI contributions, or corrections to historical records (such as missing Home Responsibilities Protection) can all still change the final amount actually paid -- so most guidance recommends checking the forecast periodically, particularly a few years before reaching State Pension age.